A-Bomb Level Earthquakes Changed Taiwan's Disaster Management Strategy
Some more context on how Taiwan deals with natural disasters
An earthquake in Taiwan is everyone’s problem. As far away as Taipei, the April 2 Hualien earthquake, which measured 7.4 / 10 on the Richter Scale, was felt at a level 5 — similar to the impact of the atomic bomb that fell on Hiroshima. Many of Taiwan’s most important exports aren’t actually semiconductors, but know-how that came out of protecting people and production from these levels of impact.
The New York Times, BBC, and other outlets did a fine job of covering the broad strokes under a tight deadline. There’s quite a bit more that can be said, from building codes to disaster management plans, earthquake prediction and modeling, politics and democracy, and infrastructure development — related to what I look at in semiconductors, which is why I can provide some background.
For example, when the BBC’s headline writer says earthquake preparedness was two decades in the making, we need to add another three decades. Taiwan began implementing requirements for earthquake resistance into building codes 50 years ago in 1974. Whether standards were met was another issue, a classic Taiwan problem.
“An entrenched culture of illegal cost-cutting measures by construction companies which may ultimately return to Taiwan’s issues with crony capitalism.” — ‘Hualien Earthquake Tragic, Raises Questions Regarding Disaster Preparedness for Taiwan,’ New Bloom, February 12, 2016
Complying with codes is the sort of risk management lesson societies learn one disaster at a time, like the 7.7 Nantou earthquake which claimed 2,400 lives in 1999, another 6.5 Kaohsiung earthquake in 2016 which resulted in 550 deaths, and subsequent earthquakes that seem to be happening more frequently and producing less collateral damage. To Taiwan’s diligence and some luck, none of the world’s biggest humanitarian disasters from earthquakes have taken place here. The Hualien earthquake could have been worse if it hadn’t began 30 km offshore, a key point in this disaster’s lower death toll1.
Tricks of Taiwanese and Chinese Construction
When an invisible hand begins swinging ceiling lamps around, it’s one of the 2,200 earthquakes shaking Taiwan each year. Only a fraction, 214, can be felt. Stronger quakes make themselves known all over the island, which is life in a geologically-connected place. Taiwan, in fact, is near the junction of two tectonic plates, in a zone called the Ring of Fire. Disaster has many chances to present itself, and it turns out much of it is our own fault.
Taiwanese won’t openly admit this, but more than a few of the construction, engineering, and political issues that came to light over the decades can compare with what China learned from the 7.8 / 10 earthquake in Sichuan that killed 69,000 people in 2008. e.g., oil cans and foam in concrete pillars, compromised building materials. These are tricks of the cut-rate construction trade.
In Taiwan, serious flaws were found in many collapsed buildings following the 1999 Nantou earthquake, a result of cutting corners and political corruption. Sometimes the foundation was fine, but lower quality concrete was used in upper floors. This included using sea sand in the concrete mix, a common but disastrous shortcut.
These methods compounded problems caused by previous shortcuts. For example, sea salt in concrete caused steel corrosion, which may have already been sub-standard steel. Rebar (reinforcing bar) often wasn’t as thick as it should have been since buyers and residents can’t easily confirm this without tearing down walls.
Radioactive rebar was even used in some buildings in northern Taiwan from 1982-84, according to the Atomic Energy Council (AEC). The Taipei Times noted, “because of a dispute over promotions at the council, high-ranking officials revealed in 1992 that AEC officials had been involved in a cover-up of the radiation-contaminated buildings.” The following year, three AEC officials were indicted, in what became the first major example of long-term chronic radiation exposure in a large population.
Today, one clear difference is how each side responds to the hard questions. Chinese spokespeople point to the coupling factor - the earthquake - instead of root causes. One explanation is there is too much liability to spread around. Also, calling attention to systematic failures undermines public trust and control exercised by single-party states2. When commentators say democracy is why Taiwan succeeds, it’s partly true because there’s public officials who can be held accountable. But mostly, these failures are simply bad governance — many buildings in communist nations are still standing.
After 1999, Governance Improved in Taiwan
Democracy’s Role
Frustration with the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party’s handling of the 1999 Nantou crisis became one of the talking points in a closely contested March 2000 presidential election, which for the first time, brought the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) into office.
“In the central county of Nantou many apartment buildings had been toppled. What was most striking was how many of them were brand new. I remember a huge 20-storey building that had snapped off at its foundations and was lying flat on its side - still almost completely intact. The catastrophic damage prompted a lot of anger and soul-searching about why so many brand new buildings had failed,” recalled BBC correspondent Rupert Wingfield-Hayes. Lin Thung-hong, a sociologist at Academia Sinica, noted “in Nantou and Taichung [in central Taiwan], voters punished the KMT government.”
Large-Scale Legislative Action
Politicians build re-election campaigns around continuous improvement, but when things get complex, simple action plans aren’t sophisticated enough. That July, Taiwan enacted the Disaster Prevention and Response Act, emphasizing preparedness and setting the foundation for a continuously improving disaster prevention and protection system. Taiwanese get a reminder that this public services layer exists through mobile alerts which warn an earthquake is coming (though they typically reach my Apple Watch moments after the shaking is over).
Some say alerts reach you faster if you download an app — here are seven options.
Behind-the-scenes, the Disaster Prevention and Response Act installed a new risk management system. More detailed regulations and procedures for handling major events were implemented from the federal down to the village level. KMT or DPP, I’ve generally found it rare for an extensive system to be implemented over the judgment of local officials, unless the civic stakes are high and typically, after the worst happens and community outrage crosses a tipping point.
“A.I.” before it was called A.I.
To keep ahead of the next earthquake, the Taiwanese government funds research in analyzing and modeling earthquakes using geographical information systems (GIS) and risk management models. Some tools have been standardized for estimating hazards, like the Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), which:
Provides estimates and immediately informs Central Emergency Operation Center personnel to activate emergency responses in casualty and loss control. Estimates include damages, injuries, casualties, rescue and medical demands, and more. TELES even dives into indirect costs of rerouting traffic. If TELES was created in 2024, some people would call it A.I. (no one did, to my relief).
One of Taiwan’s defining characteristics is it’s a very uneven place, due in part to its geological and economic diversity. TELES provides a consistent basis for comparing events and performance, revealing where there’s space for improving planning, preparedness and disaster response. Systems, procedures, structures are continuously updated.
A Practical and Proactive Approach
Because earthquakes and other natural disasters like typhoons are a fact of Taiwanese life, this research factors into bend-but-don’t-break strategies, updated requirements for the design and construction of civic structures like buildings, the high-speed rail and winding overpasses. Construction sites of new housing developments often expose part of the core beam so buyers and inspectors can see that standards are met.
Earthquakes, however, are a bigger danger in the rural mountains which cover 70% of the island, where they can trigger rockslides, disturbing roads and villages. Fewer people are affected, though those who are need more help. Sometimes, it’s what we don’t see that requires the most work. The New York Times pointed out, “We have retrofitted more than 10,000 school buildings in the last 20 years,” said Chung-Che Chou, the director general of the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering in Taipei.”
Some additional reading
Earthquake Report: M 7.4 Earthquake in Taiwan, Jay Patton Online (thanks for the link, Spectral Codex)
How Taipei discovered an active volcano on its doorstep, BBC
Development and Application of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES) in Highway Bridges, Proceedings of the 11th US-Taiwan Bridge Engineering Workshop, Taipei, Taiwan, October 20-21, 2016
What to Do When There’s an Earthquake
Best practices for staying safe and protecting yourself during and after a quake:
You’re safer indoors than outdoors, because of the possibility of falling debris
People who are already outdoors should go away from buildings and find open spaces. If you’re near the ocean, move inland to avoid big waves. If you find yourself by cliffs, there may be falling rocks and you should move away.
Move away from crowds, because panic is contagious.
In case you’re driving, pull over to the side, stop the car, stay inside. If possible, avoid bridges, over and underpasses.
If you’re already indoors:
Drop, Cover, Hold On. Drop under a heavy piece of furniture, cover your head and chest, hold on to the furniture.
Also: Don’t face windows, because they shatter. Avoid shelves with heavy objects.
If there’s no heavy furniture, find an inside wall, crouch and cover your head.
Avoid elevators. If the power goes out, you’ll be stuck.
17 deaths, 900+ injuries, as of April 24
Before judging someone, we should note the world (political system, culture) they live in. Some societies are built to handle some types of events better than others.
"Whether standards were met was another issue, a classic Taiwan problem." 💯